How expected score is calculated
Elo starts by turning the rating gap into a scoring expectation. If two players have the same rating, each is expected to score 0.5 on average. As the gap widens, the higher-rated player’s expected score rises and the lower-rated player’s expected score falls.
That expectation is then compared with the actual result. A player who scores above expectation gains rating points, while a player who scores below expectation loses them. The size of the swing depends on the K factor.
Expected score = 1 / (1 + 10^((opponent rating - player rating) / 400))
This is the standard Elo expectation formula used by the calculator.
Rating change = K x (actual score - expected score)
Actual score is 1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss.